Saudi Arabia’s Bold Cobalt Play: Why the DRC Anchors Battery-metal Ambitions

Two sources underscore how concentrated global cobalt production is in the DRC. One describes the DRC as controlling an estimated 70% or more of global cobalt output, while another says the DRC produces more than 70% of the world’s cobalt. That concentration is not just a background statistic. It shapes negotiation power and volatility across the battery supply chain. A Saudi Arabia cobalt DRC supply strategy therefore has to treat Congolese policy as a core variable, not a peripheral risk. The same DRC-focused analysis adds that artisanal and small-scale mining accounts for an estimated 15% to 30% of total DRC cobalt production, complicating provenance, due diligence, and market access expectations.

DRC Export Quotas Turn Supply Into a Policy-Driven Constraint

In early 2025, the DRC moved from an export ban to a quota system that directly constrained what the rest of the world could access. One market note says a complete export ban was imposed in February 2025, then replaced by quotas administered since October 2025. Another source provides the quota details: total exports are capped at 96,600 tonnes per year through at least 2027, including an 87,000-tonne base allocation and a 9,600-tonne government strategic reserve. The same source estimates DRC cobalt production at 230,000 tonnes in 2024 and states the export ceiling is roughly half of that level, implying large volumes must be stockpiled in-country while supply tightens elsewhere.

Prices reacted to these restrictions, reinforcing the DRC’s ability to influence the market. One report says cobalt prices surged from approximately $20,000 per tonne in February 2025 to over $56,000 by January 2026. Another market analysis says prices that had crashed 74% from their 2022 peak more than doubled after export restrictions were imposed in early 2025. It also notes European cobalt metal prices surged roughly 70%, peaking in mid-March at $17.50/lb, and adds that administrative bottlenecks meant some major producers exported zero cobalt in Q4, with allocations rolled forward to March 2026. For Saudi planners, this is a practical lesson: access, timing, and paperwork can matter as much as geology.

The strategic prize for Saudi Arabia is to connect upstream inputs to downstream processing and market access while navigating shifting battery chemistry and compliance pressures. One cobalt market overview says LFP batteries now account for over half of global EV battery deployments, yet cobalt-containing NMC still dominates 80% to 90% of European and North American EVs. That mix keeps cobalt relevant, even as substitution risk is monitored. Meanwhile, DRC project bankability is increasingly tied to supply chain due diligence expectations, and ESG performance is described as a market access condition for offtake with European manufacturers and American automotive OEMs. Against that backdrop, the Kingdom’s battery-material ambitions depend on building resilient sourcing pathways that can withstand DRC quota dynamics, traceability constraints, and fast-moving global demand patterns.